Nonlinear State-Space Models for Microeconometric Panel Data

In applied microeconometric panel data analyses, time-constant random effects and first-order Markov chains are the most prevalent structures to account for intertemporal correlations in limited dependent variable models. An example from health economics shows that the addition of a simple autoregressive error terms leads to a more plausible and parsimonious model which also captures the dynamic features better. The computational problems encountered in the estimation of such models - and a broader class formulated in the framework of nonlinear state space models - hampers their widespread use. This paper discusses the application of different nonlinear filtering approaches developed in the time-series literature to these models and suggests that a straightforward algorithm based on sequential Gaussian quadrature can be expected to perform well in this setting. This conjecture is impressively confirmed by an extensive analysis of the example application

Nonlinear State-Space Models for Microeconometric Panel Data

In applied microeconometric panel data analyses, time-constant random effects and first-order Markov chains are the most prevalent structures to account for intertemporal correlations in limited dependent variable models. An example from health economics shows that the addition of a simple autoregressive error terms leads to a more plausible and parsimonious model which also captures the dynamic features better. The computational problems encountered in the estimation of such models - and a broader class formulated in the framework of nonlinear state space models - hampers their widespread use. This paper discusses the application of different nonlinear filtering approaches developed in the time-series literature to these models and suggests that a straightforward algorithm based on sequential Gaussian quadrature can be expected to perform well in this setting. This conjecture is impressively confirmed by an extensive analysis of the example application.LDV models; panel data; state space; numerical integration; health

Specification(s) of Nested Logit Models

The nested logit model has become an important tool for the empirical analysis of discrete outcomes. There is some confusion about its specification of the outcome probabilities. Two major variants show up in the literature. This paper compares both and finds that one of them (called random utility maximization nested logit, RUMNL) is preferable in most situations. Since the command nlogit of Stata 7.0 implements the other variant (called non-normalized nested logit, NNNL), an implementation of RUMNL called nlogitrum is introduced. Numerous examples support and illustrate the differences of both specifications.

Estimation with Numerical Integration on Sparse Grids

For the estimation of many econometric models, integrals without analytical solutions have to be evaluated. Examples include limited dependent variables and nonlinear panel data models. In the case of one-dimensional integrals, Gaussian quadrature is known to work efficiently for a large class of problems. In higher dimensions, similar approaches discussed in the literature are either very specific and hard to implement or suffer from exponentially rising computational costs in the number of dimensions - a problem known as the "curse of dimensionality" of numerical integration. We propose a strategy that shares the advantages of Gaussian quadrature methods, is very general and easily implemented, and does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Monte Carlo experiments for the random parameters logit model indicate the superior performance of the proposed method over simulation techniques

Dynamics in ownership and firm survival: evidence from corporate Germany

This study investigates the determinants of changes in corporate ownership and firm failure, taking into account different types of sellers and buyers of control blocks. For a large panel of German corporations we find that firms are more likely to fail or to be sold when performance is poor, financial pressure is high, and firm size is small. Cross ownership deters control changes, and ownership concentration has a non-linear impact on the likelihood of control transfer. In contrast to corporate shareholders, private shareholders tend to sell control blocks when financial pressure increases. --Corporate governance,ownership structure,bankruptcy,takeover

Estimation with Numerical Integration on Sparse Grids

For the estimation of many econometric models, integrals without analytical solutions have to be evaluated. Examples include limited dependent variables and nonlinear panel data models. In the case of one-dimensional integrals, Gaussian quadrature is known to work efficiently for a large class of problems. In higher dimensions, similar approaches discussed in the literature are either very specific and hard to implement or suffer from exponentially rising computational costs in the number of dimensions - a problem known as the "curse of dimensionality" of numerical integration. We propose a strategy that shares the advantages of Gaussian quadrature methods, is very general and easily implemented, and does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Monte Carlo experiments for the random parameters logit model indicate the superior performance of the proposed method over simulation techniques.Estimation; Quadrature; Simulation; Mixed Logit

Consumer-Directed Health Care: Can Consumers Look After Themselves?

In health care systems today, including those of Switzerland and the United States, participants do not necessarily see the big picture of lifetime health costs and quality of life, and in many systems consumers and providers lack the incentives to manage preventative and chronic care to minimize lifetime private and social health costs. Resource allocation problems induced by asymmetric information and misaligned incentives are exacerbated if consumers fail to have the acuity or perspective needed to make choices consistent with their self-interest when faced with complex health care choices with ambiguous future consequences. This paper examines rationality of consumers’ health perceptions and choices using as a natural experiment the recent introduction in the United States of a highly subsidized market for prescription drug insurance, and draws lessons from this experiment on the practicality of “Consumer Directed Health Care” as an approach to achieving efficient allocation of health care resources by confronting consumers with the full marginal costs of the services they use

Wie groß soll die Schwankungsreserve der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung sein?

Der Abbau der Schwankungsreserve war in jüngster Zeit wieder einmal Gegenstand der politischen Diskussionen zur Stabilisierung des Rentenversicherungsbeitragssatzes. Im folgenden wird die Funktion der Schwankungsreserve näher untersucht und berechnet, in welchem Umfang sie vorgehalten werden sollte

Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return

This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre-funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized closed-economy, overlapping-generations model to compare the effects of the recent German pension reform with those of a more decisive reform that would freeze the current pay-as-you-go contribution rate and thus result in a larger funded component of the pension system. We predict rates of return to capital under both reform scenarios over a long horizon, taking demographic projections as given. Our main finding is that the future decrease in the rate of return is much smaller than often claimed in the public debate. Our simulations show that the capital stock will decrease once the baby boom generations enter retirement even if there were no fundamental pension reform. The corresponding decrease in the rate of return, the direct effect of population aging, is around 0.7 percentage points. While the capital market effects of the recent German pension reform are marginal, the rate of return to capital would decrease by an additional 0.5 percentage points under the more decisive reform proposal.